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Excess Deaths in Sweden and England

Sweden's moderate response appears to have fared better for its citizens than England, perhaps providing the best evidence yet that COVID-19 was no worse than a bad flu.

This is the first report in the series:


I have already established that Sweden and England are extremely comparable in terms of mortality. No surprise then that COVID-era mortality in Sweden follows more-or-less the same pattern as England, peaking in June 2020 at 7,000 excess deaths, followed by an expected deficit.

Conversely, consistent with many other analyses, Sweden’s relative death toll during natural COVID-19 is quite lower than England, registering a mere 1.3 times average weekly excess deaths compared to England’s 1.8X during the original, epidemic wave in spring 2020.

After an almost identical return in the autumn, COVID-19 is over in Sweden, “in spite” of the mRNA campaign.

Why “in spite”?

Because, Sweden did not start the experiment until a few weeks after England and did not go at it anywhere near as hard:

By the time COVID-19 is well and truly over on 14th March 2021 in Sweden, they have only got the toxin into 8% of the adult population, compared to 37% of the English.

OK, so they got a little extra death at the tail end (between March and May 2021 when they were playing jab catch-up) that they probably could have avoided if they hadn’t jabbed anyone at all, but all the same, it looks like the Swedish government limited the damage they did “fighting” the virus with NPIs as well as with the pharma cash cow product simply by not doing as much as England did.

Or did they?

I thought I would overlay the two series using this new excess death model, and I was a little surprised by the results.

It turns out, Sweden has relatively less excess death during COVID-19 because it generally has relatively more than England during previous respiratory pathogen peaks.

It is clear that every year, Sweden has higher peaks and more excess death, and in the really severe 2017/18 season, it looks like it had a whole entire wave of death that England managed to avoid.

The conclusion doesn’t change. Sweden’s response, such as it was, still resulted in better outcomes relative to its own self-control (which is probably the best methodology to silence all the data deniers). Contrary to prior years, England and Sweden had the exact same mortality outcome during both major waves of COVID-19, whereas normally Sweden does worse.

Verdict: After a couple of very soft mortality seasons, Sweden’s COVID-19 death toll registered the same excess as the 2018 flu season, albeit over a shorter time frame. Sweden’s COVID-19 measures appear to have had little impact either way and by not jabbing aggressively in the midst of circulating virus during the high mortality, winter season, Sweden’s mRNA experiment appears to have had limited negative impact as well.


No, I haven’t deliberately ignored 2022 season because Sweden is back to normal and England is doing much better. I am confident that there are 10s of thousand missing deaths from the English dataset due to the woeful way deaths are recorded in England. It might take another six months before we know the full extent of English deaths in 2022 while we wait on the Chief Coroner and the ONS to pull their fingers out.

If we zoom in on the last season (chart above), it seems to me that the two countries set off on the same expected mortality up until mid-Dec 2021 before Sweden diverges upwards. If my suspicions are correct and England will ultimately publish deaths that remain consistent with Swedish reporting, there will be an additional 40,000 English deaths to come. If they don’t come, it could well be due to the extra deaths pulled forward in spring 2020 and winter 2021.

Given the disregard for data integrity and optimal public health, don’t expect any special attention from them. But, when the data is finally complete, I think a special comparative analysis of Sweden and England mortality will nail the official narrative coffin (NPIs and vaccines saved millions of lives) firmly shut.

David Stupak explains it very well in this article - What was rebranded as “COVID-19” has always just been a variation of Influenza-Like-Illness (ILI).

The only extraordinary thing about COVID-19 is the speed in which people died. But what is becoming more and more clear as the data becomes complete is that the total number of deaths was predetermined and ultimately has manifested as no more than a bad flu.

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By Joel Smalley · Hundreds of paid subscribers

Dead people don't lie. Empirical analysis of mortality and other data to eke out the truth about COVID-19.

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