A Huge Day

The biggest Russian politician in sixty years just made the biggest decision of his career


Preamble.

The media in the West have spoken of nothing other than the conflict in the Donbass over the last few weeks, yet today has seen the biggest news in the region since Maidan in 2013-14. This article will through necessity be longer than usual, and whilst it cannot hope to cover every single attack, will give a broad overview of the situation as it has drastically changed during the day.


Simultaneous live translation of Putins speech


Unrelenting Attacks.

For those who have subscribed to the multitude of channels on Telegram focused on the Donbass, they will already know that the whole territory is under attack as never before. Munitions are landing in the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk as well as pretty much everywhere else. Reports tell us that the munitions are being fired by tanks as well as artillery pieces. Casualties, whilst far lower than many feared, are starting to mount up, these being military personnel as well as civilians. Whereas previous artillery strikes were only conducted at night, the bombardment is now happening around the clock. The weight of fire and consistency of shelling along the frontline of both republics means that there is presently little to distinguish between the two, it being easier to consider the two states as one rather than separate entities in the face of Kiev’s attacks.


Saturday saw a nationwide call for all males aged 18-55 to register for military service and Sunday saw the governments of both republics ask for volunteers who are older than this. A number of schools, a hospital, a water purification plant and transformers along with innumerable other parts of the infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed over the last three days, meaning that even of there was an immediate ceasefire, it would take weeks to make good recent losses.


Ukrainian special forces have also come into play, a number of attempt being made to break through the frontlines from the West. To date, none of these efforts have been particularly successful, yet in the DPR, the Ukrainians did manage to destroy a storage facility for rockets and other munitions.


Borderline War.

This morning saw two attacks on the Russian side of the frontier by the Ukrainians, one destroying a border checkpoint with no injuries, the other involving Ukrainian troops and vehicles on sovereign Russian territory. In the latter incident, the Russians killed five Ukrainian servicemen whilst another was captured. The vehicles involved were destroyed. This comes just two days after both Ukrainian artillery and rockets crossed the border, an intensifying situation meaning that Russia now needed to make a move.


It was against the backdrop of this increasingly dangerous situation that Vladimir Putin decided to hold an emergency meeting of the Russian Security Council today in order that the matter could be addressed. These proceedings will be examined later.


The Evacuation.

This is going as smoothly as can be expected under current circumstances, yet a good number of civilians do not want to leave. The offer of relocation into the Russian Federation is open to all non-essential civilians (all males aged 18-55 having been called up), yet very many do not want to leave their homes. Notwithstanding, around one hundred thousand people have already passed into Russia, the process passing as rapidly as circumstances permit.

Both trains and buses are being used to transport people to the border, yet constant shelling of built-up areas is hampering efforts to a degree. Moscow has today assigned five billion rubles ($63m) to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, ensuring that there are the resources in place to help displaced persons, these presently being transported to many regions of the Russian Federation.


Political Moves.

President Putin again spoke to the French premier, Emmanuel Macron last night, yet their call yielded no concrete results. With the overnight situation deteriorating to an even more desperate level than Sunday, many speculated that Moscow could not just sit on the sidelines any longer. Western nations have said remarkably little, their media continuing to claim that for the third month running, Russia was mere hours away from invading.

One point of note is that there are various stories circulating that the UK has sent a psy-ops unit to the Ukraine, yet this has not been confirmed. There is also footage on the internet allegedly showing the US moving military assets through Poland up to the border of Belarus, yet this is also pending confirmation.


Decision Time.

President Putin this morning stated that he was holding a meeting of the Security Council, yet observers began to worry after this had been ongoing for more than four hours. He eventually did appear, yet the opinions aired at the proceedings said as much as the decision itself. During the session which was broadcast live, Sergey Shoigu, the Defense Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, former President, former Prime Minister and currently the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister and Valentina Matvienko, Chair of the Federation Council all spoke.

That all were present whilst a decision of this magnitude was made is not a surprise, but the fact that all were in absolute lockstep in every step of the way means that the upper echelons of the Russian government are not so much on the same page, but reading the same line. In any discussion, one could expect a little deviation between the different parties on certain issues, but in this case, all were absolutely rock-solid in their resolution. There are reasons behind this however which allow us to understand why this decision has been made and why it was made now.


Minsk Agreement.

The Minsk Agreement has been the elephant in the room since 2015. The West (which has be de facto if not de jure making every decision in Kiev since 2014) has taken every opportunity to push for both Russia and the Donbass Republics to observe and obey this protocol whilst pointedly ignoring it themselves. Moreover, every violation on the part of Kiev has been hidden, the OSCE being little more than ‘our men’ on the other side of the lines.

The frozen war as many have called it had been the status quo for the region since 2015, yet the last few weeks saw an uptick in violence from the Ukrainian side, the last four days this being an undeclared war. This culmination has come not as the West has supposed due to Russian aggression, but quite the opposite. This in itself needs to be examined more closely.


The Bigger Picture.

To understand why Kiev has gone crazy over recent weeks, one first has to look at the bigger picture, yet to fit that into the global landscape, an even bigger picture must first be viewed. First we will take a look at the Ukraine itself.


After eight years of western dominance, the country is sliding down a slippery slope with no hope whatsoever of saving itself in the long term. After so many of its population bought western promises, those pledges by Biden, Nuland et al have only seen the country sell its soul to western interests. In this weakened state, its puppet leader is in no position to oppose any mandate from Washington, the Verkhovna Rada merely being a pawn on a square of Brzezinski’s Eurasian chessboard.

That pawn is now required to make a move on behalf of a global player, both player and piece knowing that it is a sacrificial move in order to further the player’s game. That game however extends far beyond the realms of Kiev’s square on the board.


The Bigger Bigger Picture.

As previously mentioned, this article cannot go into every detail, yet suffice to say that in the current climate, the western world and above all others, the US, is suffering from an impending depression, war being the only logical course to take from Washington’s standpoint.

The last thirty years have seen the White House using increasingly bellicose measures against all that oppose it in order that America benefits from the setbacks suffered by others. With the current economic climate offering as little promise as it does, a war would mean that the US can print money at the same time it tightens its control over a Europe that will in turn suffer the consequences of Washington’s war.

The slow stranglehold placed by Obama, Trump and Biden has seen increasing interference and influence being exerted, this even leading to legislation such as the PEESA Act. In short, a war will strengthen the US economy whilst weakening Europe, a win-win for a Washington that never intends to pay the debts it accumulates.


With a Washington-led West telling the world that Russia has been threatening to invade the Ukraine since well before Christmas, the longer that Russia does not invade, the more embarrassing it becomes for the US. No Russian invasion means no sanctions, no chest-beating and above all, no money pulled out of thin air to keep the American economy going, Russia not starting a war of Washington’s creation causes real headaches stateside, hence the White House placing so much pressure everywhere it could that even Zelenskiy told Biden to back off.


Last minute attempts were made for further meetings, yet with Washington saying this could not happen for months, quite obviously the West was attempting to twist the situation into giving it the desired result.

In short, the cold hard truth lying under the lying words of America is that Washington needs this war far more than Moscow does not.


The Nuclear Option.

The news that Zelenskiy has mentioned backing out of the Budapest Memorandum regarding the stationing of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine has caused raised eyebrows in a number of quarters. Kiev claims that its territorial integrity has been breached, yet with the Donbass Republics and no Russian troops in them to date, this gives no cause for Zelenskiy to follow the atomic route. The country is in a real financial mess already, yet it would surprise few in the know if Kiev did not at least look down this very expensive and dangerous route.


Domestic Terrorism.

Amongst the very many happenings over the last couple of days was the announcement from the US Embassy in Moscow on Sunday night related to the danger of terrorist attacks in Russia. This in itself is sensational, yet the Americans had not established any communications whatsoever with the Russian Government regarding this announcement. Some have argued that this may mean the US is attempting to use third parties to act within Russia, but the mere fact that the embassy has made this statement without prior consultation with the relevant Russian authorities is highly abnormal. With this said and done, now we have to examine what it all means.


Recognition.

With both of the Donbass Republics recognized by Moscow, not only can diplomatic moves be made to open embassies and suchlike, but the far more important matter of the republics’ immediate security be addressed. The last three days have seen terrible devastation across the region, aside of the casualties, this being a situation that cannot be allowed to continue. With both Donetsk and Lugansk being officially recognized, this gives the Russian government the necessary leverage to place pressure on Kiev to halt the onslaught of the last few days.

With all things being as they are, this will likely fail, the Russian Armed Forces then being given the green light to intervene. Should military involvement begin, everyone knows that this will mean that Russians will be in the area for real, yet quite how far they will go is known only to a select few at this point. With Kiev’s army being largely composed of conscripts and those unwilling to fight, Zelenskiy is in no position to oppose Russian forces should they appear. Moreover gambling the throngs of Nazi extremists against Moscow would be like Russian Roulette with a semi automatic.


Blowback.

The West will have a apoplectic fit, every headline screaming of Putin and Russia, yet when looked at objectively, the situation is not as bad as the western pundits would have us believe. There has been a creeping hybrid war of sanctions, measures and general persecution of anything Russian since 2014, the West attempting to put a brake on Moscow wherever possible, yet many of these measures have had negative effects on the economies of those nations that were so keen to impose them.

The brutal truth is that the actions that will soon be taken against Russia would inevitably have been taken, even had the Kremlin done nothing. Eight years of being pilloried are about to reach new heights, yet until today, Moscow has done precious little in return. The Russian economy will undoubtedly suffer from a new round of sanctions, yet with the western world in the mire that it is, the effects of these measures will be a good deal less than those desired by the nations who impose them.


Summary.

Today we have seen the most decisive day of more than two decades of Vladimir Putin’s rule. Some may say it has come too late, yet with words being a language preferred over war, Moscow wanted to ensure that no other options remained. For eight years, ethnic Russians have suffered the effects of their former countrymen imposing politics from afar through the barrel of a gun. This day will be a historic one in so many ways, yet whether peace breaks out or the Russian Army rolls in largely depends on Kiev, and to a greater degree Washington.


Put simply, someone, some day had to make a stand against western aggression and the burden that this imposes upon the world in general; if Russia had not stood up now, everything about the country, people, culture and history would have stood for nothing…

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